Analytics for consumer tech companies
I help consumer tech companies make promotional and incentive spend actually profitable.
Currently · Business Intelligence Manager, Allo Bank
Leading a six-analyst team across acquisition, engagement, digital funding, lending journeys, fraud, and cost optimization — the full width of a digital bank’s P&L.
Selected work
Full detail →Measured what an ML coupon engine actually saved
Post-analysis on machine-targeted coupons — separating real savings from spend that would have converted anyway.
Killed a free-shipping subsidy in two cities
Synthetic control showed the subsidy wasn’t buying the volume it was credited with. It was terminated.
Cut a retention program’s cost, kept its customers
Redesigned a discount program to shut out promo abuse while still rewarding genuine repeat customers.
Writing
All 12 issues →Timur — Indonesian and SEA fintech, mechanism-led and counterfactual.
Part 9Indonesia’s TikTok ban strengthened Shopee, not Tokopedia
The cleanest natural experiment of the period. Regulation moved market share in a way capital never managed to.
Part 6Driver supply stayed, when wages were cut
Supply held after pay fell, which looks like resilience and is really adverse selection. The welfare cost went uncounted.
Part 7When the cash cow dies, the conglomerate model breaks
Garena funded Shopee. That cross-subsidy, not strategy, explains who could burn longest and who had to stop.
The cleanest natural experiment of the period. Regulation moved market share in a way capital never managed to.
Part 6Driver supply stayed, when wages were cut
Supply held after pay fell, which looks like resilience and is really adverse selection. The welfare cost went uncounted.
Part 7When the cash cow dies, the conglomerate model breaks
Garena funded Shopee. That cross-subsidy, not strategy, explains who could burn longest and who had to stop.